The San Antonio Spurs are still in this series. They may not be for long.
After stealing Game 1 in double overtime, the Spurs have dropped two straight to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Finals, and the margin for error heading into Game 4 is thinning. A loss on Sunday would put San Antonio in a 3-1 hole against a team that has looked increasingly comfortable over the past week.
Victor Wembanyama has scored 21 or more points in every game of the series. The problem is that the Spurs cannot survive on his production alone.
How Oklahoma City took control
Game 3 told a story about depth. San Antonio came out fast, building a 15-0 lead before the Thunder found their footing. What followed was a 30-point swing that turned the game decisively in Oklahoma City’s favor. The Thunder bench was central to the reversal, providing the kind of consistent production that the Spurs simply could not match.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a quiet Game 1 but has since reasserted himself as the series’ most effective two-way player. His ability to both score and facilitate has grown as the matchup has developed, and the Thunder have looked more organized with each passing game.
The injury problem San Antonio cannot ignore
The Spurs are managing significant injury concerns on both ends of their roster. De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper, two of their most important perimeter options, have been limited, narrowing the offensive combinations available to coach Gregg Popovich.
The damage has been compounded by the play of backup center Luke Kornet, who has been a defensive liability in this series. San Antonio has been outscored by 37 points in his minutes across the three games, a number that reflects how exposed the Spurs become when Wembanyama is resting.
Devin Vassell has taken on a larger offensive role in the absence of Fox and Harper and has responded with consistent double-digit scoring. He and Wembanyama represent the Spurs’ most reliable scoring combination, and San Antonio will need both of them performing at a high level to compete with a Thunder team that has multiple contributors at every position.
What Game 4 will likely come down to
The Spurs open as slight favorites at home, but the recent trajectory of the series has favored Oklahoma City. The Thunder are not a team that folds under pressure, and their bench depth gives them an answer for almost every lineup San Antonio puts on the floor.
For the Spurs to win, they need to protect their early leads rather than surrender them, limit Oklahoma City’s transition opportunities and get something from the players around Wembanyama and Vassell. The rotation has been shortened by injury, which means the starters will carry a heavier load and their conditioning in the fourth quarter will matter.
Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 14.6 potential assists per game this postseason and has shown a willingness to defer when his teammates are scoring. When the Thunder are sharing the ball and their bench is engaged, they are difficult to beat in a single game, let alone across a series.
The Spurs took Game 1 on the road in double overtime, which is proof the gap between these teams is not wide. But the Thunder have answered every challenge since, and Sunday night in San Antonio will tell a great deal about whether this series has another turn in it.
