Michael, Lionsgate’s much-anticipated biopic about the King of Pop, is projecting a global opening weekend of approximately 150 million dollars, a figure that would make it the highest-grossing debut for a music performer biopic in Hollywood history. The film carries a 200 million dollar production budget and opens this weekend across 82 international markets simultaneously with its domestic release.
Domestic projections have grown considerably since the film first entered tracking, settling between 65 and 70 million dollars across roughly 3,900 locations, including more than 1,600 Imax and premium large-format auditoriums. That figure places it well ahead of the previous domestic records for music biopics, including the 2015 N.W.A. chronicle that opened to approximately 60 million dollars and the Queen biopic that debuted around 51 million dollars domestically in 2018. International distribution is being handled by Universal Pictures across most territories, with Japan scheduled for a June release and South Korea bowing in mid-May.
A Hollywood premiere that stopped the room
The film’s Hollywood premiere at the Dolby Theatre drew an audience of more than 3,000 and generated an overwhelmingly emotional response throughout its 127-minute runtime. Rather than following the standard industry practice of brief talent introductions before the screening, producer Graham King and director Antoine Fuqua brought the full cast and key members of the Jackson family to the stage, including the late singer’s son Prince Jackson and Jaafar Jackson, who portrays his late uncle in the film.
Audience responses throughout the screening were described as spontaneous and sustained, with applause and cheering reported throughout. The reaction mirrors accounts from earlier test screenings held late last year, which drew a significant number of industry insiders and were described as deeply emotional. Early presale data and reports of sold-out advance screenings around the world suggest that fan enthusiasm is translating into box office momentum ahead of the opening weekend.
The path to release
Michael had a complicated road to theaters. Originally scheduled for spring 2025, the release was pushed twice before landing on this weekend. The delays were tied in part to reshoots required after the Jackson estate determined that a third-act sequence depicting a specific accuser could not proceed without legal clearance to dramatize that individual. The reshoots, reportedly funded by the estate, addressed those concerns. The original cut also contained enough additional footage that Lionsgate has committed to producing a sequel.
Critical reception has been mixed, with early reviews on aggregator sites running significantly below audience enthusiasm. That gap between critical and audience response is consistent with several comparable films in recent years and is unlikely to materially affect a debut of this size, particularly given the extraordinary global fan base that existed for the subject before a single frame was shot.
Global expectations and the Japan factor
Internationally, the film is expected to generate between 75 and 80 million dollars across its opening weekend markets. Brazil, France, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and Germany are among the territories projecting the strongest returns, reflecting the regions where Michael Jackson maintained his largest and most dedicated touring audiences during his lifetime.
Japan, which does not open until June, may ultimately prove to be one of the film’s most significant international markets. When Sony released Jackson’s final concert documentary in 2009, Japan alone contributed more than 57 million dollars to a total global haul of approximately 268 million dollars, a figure that gives distributors a concrete benchmark for the enthusiasm that awaits when Michael finally reaches Japanese screens.
Germany hosted the film’s global premiere event earlier this month, drawing the full cast and an audience of content creators who collectively reached more than half a billion followers, providing a promotional footprint that most studio releases cannot approach.
