Roughly 320 million SpaceX shares, worth about $43.7 billion at Friday’s closing price, become eligible for sale Thursday, a batch equal to 3.4 times Friday’s entire trading volume. Whether that supply actually hits the market or simply sits untouched is the question investors are watching heading into the week.
How did SpaceX shares perform heading into this unlock?
Shares closed Friday at $136.71, down 3.2% for the session but up about 5.2% for the week, sitting just 1.3% above the company’s $135 IPO price and still well below the $225.64 peak the stock reached in June. That gap between the current price and the June high captures how much sentiment has cooled since SpaceX’s record breaking debut on the Nasdaq.
Why doesn’t this unlock scare investors the way the last one did?
This is the part most coverage keeps skipping. SpaceX already went through a bigger test on August 6, when more than 900 million shares unlocked at once, a batch larger than the stock’s entire trading float at the time. Instead of triggering the selloff many expected, shares climbed more than 6% that day and nearly 16% the next, and Elon Musk publicly backed the stock as a buying opportunity on X the same week prices bottomed out. That history suggests eligibility to sell doesn’t automatically translate into actual selling, and it’s part of why this week’s smaller unlock is being watched as much for investor behavior as for the raw dollar figure.
Who actually holds enough SpaceX stock to move the market?
Regulatory filings as of June 30 show Alphabet as the largest outside holder with 551.2 million shares worth $75.4 billion at Friday’s price, followed by Fidelity Investments at 302.6 million shares worth $41.4 billion. Gigafund Management holds 171.8 million shares worth $23.5 billion, while Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund holds 154.1 million shares valued at $21.1 billion. Baillie Gifford and BlackRock each hold roughly $7 billion worth of stock. Musk himself retained a 48.4% economic interest as of that date along with more than 82% of voting control, and his own roughly 6.4 billion share stake stays locked until June 2027, meaning the founder isn’t part of this week’s selling pool at all.
What are Wall Street analysts actually expecting from here?
Price targets vary widely depending on how much credit analysts give SpaceX’s artificial intelligence division. Morgan Stanley’s target of $300 implies 119% upside from Friday’s close, while Bernstein sits at $239 and RBC Capital Markets at $225, implying gains of 75% and 65% respectively. Clear Street, Citi and Stifel land lower, at $217, $200 and $190, though every major firm covering the stock still sees upside from current levels. That bullish tilt followed SpaceX’s second quarter results, which showed revenue climbing 92% to $7.8 billion and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization reaching $3.5 billion, even as capital spending rose to $18.4 billion.
What should investors actually watch this week?
Traders will be tracking overall volume, block trades and how steady the price holds once markets reopen Monday, with Thursday’s unlock as the real test. If shares hold above the $135 IPO price after the new supply hits, that would suggest demand remains strong despite the added float, though analysts note that eligibility to sell doesn’t guarantee anyone actually will. Seven more scheduled unlock rounds remain before the end of the year, so however Thursday plays out, it won’t be the last time SpaceX’s stock faces this exact question.
