The most anticipated contract negotiation of the 2026 NBA offseason does not involve a free agent. It involves a player already under contract, and it opens on July 6.
Victor Wembanyama and the rest of the 2023 NBA draft class become eligible for rookie-scale extensions on that date, beginning a negotiating window that runs until the day before the 2026-27 regular season tips off. For Wembanyama, the deal on the table could reach approximately $310 million over five years, a number that reflects both the scope of Wembanyama’s talent and the direction the league’s salary cap is headed.
How rookie extensions work
Rookie-scale extensions allow teams to lock in first-round picks before they reach restricted free agency. Players who do not sign during the window become restricted free agents in the summer of 2027, meaning their current team retains the right to match any outside offer. That dynamic gives both sides incentive to reach a deal, though the timing of when they do can vary significantly.
Maximum extensions run five years, though four-year deals are common depending on the player’s perceived value and the team’s long-term financial picture. The 2025 offseason established several reference points for this summer’s negotiations. Paolo Banchero and Jalen Williams both signed five-year maximum deals projected in the range of 25 to 30% of the salary cap. Alperen Sengun signed for $185 million over five years, while Keegan Murray landed $140 million over the same length. Nikola Jovic secured a four-year deal worth $62.4 million, and Payton Pritchard signed for $30 million over four seasons.
Those contracts now serve as the benchmarks agents and front offices will reference when building their cases this summer.
The players to watch
Wembanyama sits at the top of the list by a considerable distance. Wembanyama’s first three seasons in San Antonio have established Wembanyama as one of the most complete players in the league, and a deal approaching the maximum is widely expected.
Brandon Miller is the other name drawing significant attention. After a strong second season in Charlotte, Miller is projected to land a deal in the range of $175 million over five years, placing him in the tier just below the supermax threshold.
Ausar Thompson’s contract with Detroit is expected to reflect his unique defensive profile and athleticism, with projections landing around $79 million over four years. Keyonte George has emerged as one of the stronger young guards in the class and could push toward $182 million over five years based on his development in Utah.
Jordan Hawkins presents a more complicated picture. A drop in three-point shooting efficiency has cooled some of the early enthusiasm around his extension, and expectations for his deal have been adjusted downward accordingly.
What it means for the teams involved
Each of these negotiations carries consequences beyond a single player’s earnings. Teams must weigh their investment in young talent against existing salary commitments and the need to remain competitive. The salary cap is projected to continue rising, which expands the total dollars available but also raises the floor for what comparable players can reasonably request.
The decisions made between July 6 and the start of the season will shape rosters for the better part of the next half decade. For franchises still building around their 2023 picks, this summer is the moment where the direction of those projects becomes clearer.
