Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in 94 years, but this year’s contest is anything but predictable.
Democrat Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist megachurch pastor, is running neck and neck with Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in the Kansas Senate race with less than a week until the Nov. 3 election.
What do the polls show in the Kansas Senate race?
Hamilton leads Marshall in the Kansas Senate race 46% to 45% in an average of four recent polls, well within the margin of error.
Individual surveys have varied. An Emerson College poll in September showed Hamilton ahead 45% to 43%, while another September poll had Marshall up by 5 points. A poll from a Democratic firm gave Hamilton a lead of 4 points. Libertarian David Graham has drawn about 4% to 5% in some surveys.
Emerson found Hamilton with a large lead among independents and that 53% of Kansas voters disapprove of President Donald Trump.
Who are the candidates?
Hamilton founded the United Methodist Church of the Resurrection in the Kansas City area, the largest United Methodist congregation in the country. He has focused his campaign on the cost of living and has told Trump voters there is a place for them in his campaign.
Marshall, a physician, is seeking a second term after winning his seat in 2020. He has called Hamilton too woke for Kansas, tied him to Democratic leaders such as Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and argued that control of the Senate runs through the state. Republicans have also sharply attacked Hamilton’s record as a church leader, and the two sides have traded increasingly personal criticism in the final weeks.
How are Republicans responding?
Trump held a rally for Marshall near Wichita on Oct. 19, his first Kansas rally since 2018, where he defended the senator and called Hamilton a disgrace. Vice President JD Vance campaigned for Marshall this week, touting tax cuts on tips, overtime and Social Security, and Trump announced another visit to Salina on Saturday.
Hamilton said the visits showed Republicans felt they needed the most powerful man in the country to save Marshall, adding that he thinks it will only hurt the senator. His campaign has said Marshall is sinking and that Washington is panicking.
Why is the Kansas Senate race so close?
The race reflects a national environment that appears tough for Republicans. Democrats lead in Senate races in North Carolina and Georgia, and Republicans face competitive contests in South Carolina, Mississippi and Texas. Democrats have also gained ground in other traditionally Republican states.
Rising prices, tariffs and higher gas costs tied to the war with Iran have weighed on the president’s party. A lifelong Democrat in Johnson County said voters there have waited a long time to see the state flip.
Election forecasters have still rated the Kansas Senate race as leaning Republican, reflecting the state’s long history of backing the party. Republicans have won Kansas in every presidential election since 1964.
What is at stake in the Kansas Senate race?
Kansas last sent a Democrat to the Senate in 1932, when George McGill won reelection during a wave of Democratic victories. Democrats have won the governor’s office in Kansas in recent years, showing voters there are willing to cross party lines.
A Hamilton win could help determine control of the Senate, where Republicans hold a narrow majority.
Early voting is underway, and both campaigns are making final pushes in the Kansas Senate race to reach undecided and independent voters.
However it ends, the Kansas Senate race has become one of the most closely watched contests of the midterm elections.
