Drake is back at the center of sports betting chatter, this time ahead of Sunday’s World Cup final between Argentina and Spain at MetLife Stadium. The rapper placed roughly $1.5 million through his partnership with Stake, backing Argentina to win outright in regulation time, a wager that would pay out around $5.1 million if it hits. By skipping the safer option of betting on Argentina simply to lift the trophy, which would include extra time or penalties, Drake chose a riskier path that requires Lionel Messi’s side to close out the match within 90 minutes.
The bet quickly circulated across social media after Stake shared a screenshot of the ticket, and it didn’t take long for the conversation to shift toward Drake’s long running reputation as an unlucky charm for the athletes and teams he publicly backs.
The curse and its uneven track record
Football fans have spent years debating whether Drake’s public support carries an actual jinx or whether the pattern is simply a coincidence amplified by social media. His history with Argentina alone offers mixed evidence. During the 2024 Copa America semifinal, he bet against Argentina in favor of his home country of Canada, only to watch Argentina win comfortably. In the 2022 World Cup final, he backed Argentina to beat France outright in regulation, a bet that technically lost when the match went to extra time and penalties despite Argentina ultimately winning the trophy.
His overall betting record leans unfavorable. Tracking site TheDrakeCurse.com puts his public win rate at roughly 37%, with far more losses than wins across dozens of disclosed wagers. Just last weekend, a bet he placed on Conor McGregor to upset Max Holloway ended in a loss within the fight’s opening minute.
How Argentina and Spain actually stack up
Betting markets tell a different story from Drake’s pick. Prediction platforms and sportsbooks currently favor Spain, with some markets giving the European side better than 50% odds to win. Spain arrives with the tournament’s stingiest defense, having conceded just one goal in seven matches and having never trailed at any point in the competition. The team also dominates possession, averaging 64% over the tournament, and reached the final by beating France behind a standout performance from teenage star Lamine Yamal.
Argentina, by contrast, leans on a compact defensive shape and dangerous counterattacking through players like Julian Alvarez, Lautaro Martinez and Enzo Fernandez. The defending champions advanced past England in their semifinal thanks to two assists from Messi, and much of the core group from their 2022 title run remains intact, bolstered by newer additions like Giuliano Simeone, Nico Paz and Valentin Barco.
Analysts note that if Argentina can grab an early lead, it would be the first time all tournament Spain has had to play from behind, a scenario that could test how the younger Spanish squad handles adversity under pressure.
What it means heading into Sunday
Whatever happens on the pitch, Drake’s wager has already become its own storyline heading into the final. Fans on both sides will be watching not just for the result, but for whether the so called curse strikes again, adding another layer of drama to a final that already carries plenty of its own.
