America’s farmers are heading into Election Day feeling more pessimistic about their bottom line. A closely watched monthly survey shows their mood soured over the summer as costs climbed.
Farmer sentiment fell sharply in September as a record share of producers named rising input costs as their biggest worry, according to the Purdue University and CME Group Ag Economy Barometer released Oct. 6, 2026. The barometer is a joint project of the Indiana university and the CME Group, which operates futures markets.
How much did farmer sentiment drop?
The barometer’s index of farmer sentiment fell from 135 in August to 123 in September. A measure of current conditions dropped 18 points, while a measure of future expectations fell nine points.
Only 22% of farmers said they expect to be better off financially a year from now, compared with 35% who expect to be worse off. In August, more farmers expected to be better off than worse off for the first time since June 2025. The reversal shows how quickly expectations shifted in a single month.
The monthly survey of 400 farmers nationwide was conducted Sept. 14 to Sept. 18. Researchers at Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture analyze the results each month.
Why are farmers worried?
A record 52% of farmers cited higher input costs as their top concern, and 54% said high input costs were the main factor holding back their farm’s finances. Input costs include fertilizer, fuel, seed, chemicals and equipment.
A Purdue economist noted that corn and soybean prices rose from August into September but that diesel prices also climbed and concerns about fertilizer prices grew. Higher crop prices were not enough to offset rising expenses.
A Farm Bureau economist has warned that the war with Iran is driving input costs higher, adding to pressure on farm budgets. Fertilizer prices are closely tied to energy markets, which have been volatile since the conflict began.
How do Trump administration policies affect farmers?
Policy has also shaped farmer sentiment. Farmers have been affected by several administration actions, including tariffs that have disrupted export markets, immigration enforcement that has strained farm labor and changes to environmental regulations.
Military operations against Iran have also pushed up fuel and fertilizer costs. Higher fuel costs affect everything from planting to transporting crops to market.
Fewer farmers now believe the country is heading in the right direction. That share fell to 48%, down from a peak of 75% less than a year ago.
Is there any good news in the survey?
Yes. Farmers remain optimistic about land values, with an index measuring their expectations for farmland values over the long run reaching a record high of 168. Strong land values help farmers borrow money and build wealth.
Overall farmer sentiment also remains well above where it stood in September 2024, when the index hit a low of 88.
What does farmer sentiment mean for the midterms?
Farmers and rural voters have been a key part of President Donald Trump’s base. Weakening farmer sentiment could test that support in rural districts and farm states. Farm country delivered strong margins for Republicans in recent elections.
Many competitive races, including the Senate contest in Kansas, are in states where agriculture is a major part of the economy.
Supporters of the administration argue its trade deals and deregulation will help farmers over time, while critics say tariffs and higher costs are hurting them now. The administration has also provided aid payments to farmers hurt by trade disputes.
With input costs still climbing, farmer sentiment will be closely watched heading into the 2027 planting season. Farmers will be making decisions about what to plant and how much to spend in the coming months.
