President Trump on Wednesday simultaneously threatened Iran with a significantly more intense military campaign and expressed optimism that a peace agreement remained within reach, embodying the contradictory posture that has defined Washington’s approach to the more than two-month-old war. He made clear that if Tehran failed to accept the terms that had reportedly been agreed upon through Pakistani intermediaries, American military action would return at a scale beyond anything seen so far in the conflict.
At the same time, he described recent talks as productive and said a deal was very possible, even as he acknowledged that Iran accepting the terms on the table was, as he put it, perhaps a big assumption. He told reporters that direct talks in Pakistan were not yet the next step, describing the moment as too early for another face-to-face round of negotiations.
Iran, for its part, was publicly reviewing the latest American proposal but had not responded to any of Trump’s statements by the end of the day.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis Trump cannot afford to ignore
The waterway at the center of the conflict continued to function far below normal capacity. In the two days immediately following the launch and subsequent pause of Project Freedom, the American military operation to escort commercial ships through the strait, maritime authorities recorded just 11 transits through the passage. The historical daily average is roughly 138. Four cargo ships and one oil tanker managed to move eastward out of the Persian Gulf during that window, two of them with American military assistance.
The brief lifespan of Project Freedom reflected the limits of the approach. Shipping industry analysts and vessel owners said the operation had not offered sufficient protection or clarity to justify resuming normal transit routes. Many ships still trapped inside the Persian Gulf were disabling or falsifying their location transponders, a sign of how volatile conditions remained. Reports from a maritime charity indicated that some crews were rationing food and boiling seawater for drinking purposes amid the prolonged standoff.
Hapag-Lloyd, one of the world’s largest shipping companies, disclosed that the Strait of Hormuz shutdown was costing it approximately sixty million dollars per week, with fuel and insurance costs hitting hardest and overland or alternate maritime routes offering little practical relief.
Energy prices reflect the scale of the disruption
The economic ripple effects of the conflict extended well beyond the shipping industry. American gas prices reached an average of four dollars and fifty-four cents per gallon on Wednesday, the highest level since July 2022 and a fifty-two percent increase since the war began in late February. Crude oil was trading at around one hundred dollars per barrel, down from earlier highs during the week but still sharply elevated from the roughly seventy dollars per barrel seen before the conflict started.
Airline fuel costs had also surged dramatically. According to federal transportation data, American carriers spent more than five billion dollars on jet fuel in March alone, a fifty-six percent increase from the prior month. The spiraling costs forced carriers to raise fares and fees, and contributed to the collapse of at least one budget airline that cited fuel prices as a decisive factor in its shutdown.
Diplomacy moves on multiple fronts
While Washington and Tehran remained locked in a standoff, other world powers were positioning themselves around the edges of the conflict. France and the United Kingdom were assembling a multinational force of more than forty nations designed to help secure safe passage through the strait once hostilities concluded, with France’s aircraft carrier already heading toward the region. Germany dispatched a naval vessel to the Mediterranean in preparation for joining the effort.
French President Emmanuel Macron called on both the United States and Iran to lift the blockade without conditions, describing the strikes on civilian infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates as unjustified in a call with Iran’s president. The Iranian side responded that any negotiation over reopening the strait would require the United States to lift its naval blockade first.
China, whose foreign minister met with Iran’s top diplomat in Beijing, described itself as deeply distressed by the conflict and called for a comprehensive ceasefire, while Iran’s foreign minister said Tehran would only accept a fair and comprehensive agreement to end the war.
Israel’s ongoing military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon added another layer of complexity. Iran has consistently refused to accept any peace framework that does not also include a halt to Israeli operations in Lebanon, making a comprehensive deal significantly harder to reach even when the outlines of a bilateral agreement between Washington and Tehran appeared to be taking shape.
