38-year-old ends five-match losing streak with +810 underdog victory in four-hour marathon as oldest Open era man eyes 25th Grand Slam
Novak Djokovic just pulled off the upset nobody saw coming. At 38 years old, operating as a +810 underdog against the defending champion, Djokovic defeated Jannik Sinner 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 in a five-set thriller that extended past 1:30 a.m. local time in Melbourne. The match lasted over four hours. It took nearly everything Djokovic had left in his body. And he won anyway.
This wasn’t supposed to happen. Sinner is the present. Djokovic is the past. Sinner won the past two Australian Opens. Djokovic had lost five consecutive matches to Sinner. The narrative was written: generational transition, Djokovic’s era officially over, Sinner as the new order. Then Djokovic went out at 1:30 a.m. on a Friday night in Melbourne and reminded everyone why he’s still one of the greatest tennis players who’s ever lived.
The +810 underdog victory is the largest in a men’s Grand Slam match since Botic van de Zandschulp upset Alcaraz as a +2500 underdog in the 2024 US Open. That’s how unlikely this outcome was. That’s how dominant Sinner has been. And that’s how much Djokovic’s win changes the narrative heading into Sunday’s final.
After Sinner’s final backhand landed wide, Djokovic collapsed to the court in elation and exhaustion. Tears in his eyes. Arms thrust to the sky. A man who’d been counted out proving he still has enough left to compete at the highest level against the most talented competition in the sport.
“I’m lost for words right now,” Djokovic said during his on-court interview, still emotional. “It feels surreal, to be honest. Playing over four hours, almost 2 a.m. The level of intensity and the quality of tennis was extremely high. I knew that was the only way for me to have a chance to win tonight.”
That’s the acknowledgment of what just happened. This wasn’t a close match where one guy dominated. This was a battle. This was two elite players operating at peak intensity for over four hours, with Djokovic’s mental toughness and defensive mastery eventually prevailing against Sinner’s more recent dominance.
When defensive excellence decides five-set wars
Here’s the stat that defines this match: Djokovic fended off 16 of 18 break-point chances he faced. That’s not just good defense. That’s extraordinary defense. He was under constant pressure from Sinner, facing break points repeatedly, and he kept finding ways to survive. His serve was the crucial ally “dug him out of some sticky situations,” as one observer noted. His mental resilience was the foundation.
Sinner had his chances. In the fifth set alone, he had eight break-point opportunities. He had one. And it was Djokovic who converted his single chance, which proved to be enough. That’s the definition of clutch tennis making the most of your opportunities when it matters most.
The first three games were ominous for Djokovic. Sinner cruised into an early lead, and the narrative seemed to be playing out as expected. Then Djokovic’s precision ballstriking kicked in. The crisp groundstrokes started finding the corners. The serve began functioning as a weapon. By the second set, he’d broken Sinner’s serve at 3-1 and never looked back in that frame.
The third set went to Sinner. The fourth belonged to Djokovic. The fifth was decided by one conversion out of one break-point opportunity. That’s how fine the margins are at this level, with two of the greatest players on the planet operating at absolute peak.
The path to 25 and an unlikely final
Djokovic’s victory ends his streak of four consecutive semifinal exits at majors. It snaps his five-match losing streak to Sinner. And it puts him 11 Australian Open titles into his career a tournament where he’s never lost in a final. At 38, he would be the oldest man in the Open era to win a Grand Slam title if he defeats Alcaraz on Sunday.
The final will be Djokovic vs. Alcaraz. Head-to-head, Alcaraz leads 4-5 overall, but holds a 3-2 edge in major matchups (2-0 in major finals). Alcaraz is the -301 favorite. He is listed at +240. But after surviving Sinner in the dead of night, His path to number 25 doesn’t seem as impossible as it did 24 hours ago.
He did acknowledge the help he received getting to this point Mensik withdrew before their fourth-round match, and Musetti retired while up two sets in the quarterfinal. But he also beat Sinner when it mattered. And that’s what people will remember.
“Honestly it feels like winning already tonight,” Djokovic said when asked about the final. “I just hope I’ll have enough gas to stay toe-to-toe with him.”
After what he just did, don’t count him out.
