The disruption to global air travel that began with rising ticket prices has entered a more serious phase. The conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran has squeezed oil supply chains across the Middle East, trapping crude in storage facilities and driving the price of oil past $100 a barrel. Jet fuel, which hit $195 per barrel at the end of March, has climbed nearly $100 in just over a month since the war began in late February.
The supply problem is now compounding the cost problem. Jet fuel requires specialized storage infrastructure, which limits how much can be held in reserve compared to other petroleum products like gasoline. As the conflict drags on and oil output from the region remains constrained, airlines that rely on international supply chains are finding it increasingly difficult to secure the fuel they need to operate existing routes.
International energy analysts have warned that the worst may still be ahead. The volume of oil lost from global markets in April is expected to be roughly double what was lost in March, a trajectory that points toward widening shortages in the months ahead. Asia has already felt the pressure most acutely. Europe is widely expected to follow, with the United Kingdom identified as among the most exposed countries on the continent to tightening diesel and jet fuel supplies.
European carriers prepare for cuts
Europe’s largest airline by passenger volume is already preparing contingency plans. Ryanair has said it is evaluating route reductions as it monitors whether its fuel supply could be at risk if the conflict continues into May. The airline does not expect disruption before early May but has acknowledged the risk of supply problems in May and June if conditions do not improve.
Germany’s Lufthansa has assembled internal crisis response teams and has said it could ground as many as 40 aircraft depending on how the situation develops. The airline has not yet announced specific route cancellations but is treating the scenario as a live operational concern.
Scandinavian Airlines has moved further along than its European counterparts, announcing the cancellation of roughly 1,000 flights. The cuts are concentrated on short-haul routes in the Nordic region, with the airline selecting airports that operate multiple flights daily so that passengers on affected routes can be rebooked. The carrier has also temporarily raised fares in response to the fuel cost increase, describing the surge as affecting the entire European aviation system.
United Airlines warns of a historic cost burden
United Airlines has confirmed it will reduce its flight schedule over the next two financial quarters. The cuts will focus on off-peak departures and red-eye routes that have become temporarily unprofitable at current fuel prices. The airline’s leadership described the financial stakes in stark terms, noting that sustaining current jet fuel prices would add approximately $11 billion to annual operating expenses, a figure that exceeds the carrier’s best-ever annual profit by more than double.
The reductions are framed as a tactical and temporary response to an abnormal cost environment rather than a structural reshaping of the network. The airline has not specified which routes will be affected.
Air New Zealand and Vietnam among those cutting capacity
Air New Zealand has announced it will eliminate approximately 5 percent of its scheduled flights, or roughly 1,100 departures, beginning in early May. The airline said it is prioritizing consolidations on off-peak services and routes where passengers can be accommodated on alternative flights without significant disruption.
In Vietnam, the impact has been more immediate. Vietnam Airlines suspended seven domestic routes effective April 1 and has indicated it could reduce its overall monthly flight volume by 10 to 20 percent in the coming quarter if jet fuel prices continue rising in the range of $160 to $200 per barrel. Two other Vietnamese carriers, Vietjet Air and Bamboo Airways, have announced similar flight reductions as the country’s aviation sector grapples with supply constraints and mounting costs.
A widening disruption with no clear end in sight
The pattern emerging across Asia, Europe and the Pacific suggests a travel landscape that will look meaningfully different in the months ahead than it did at the start of the year. Airlines that built their summer schedules around pre-war fuel assumptions are now recalculating those plans in real time, and the adjustments are still in early stages.
Analysts tracking the energy market have cautioned that the shortfall is likely to grow before it stabilizes, meaning the current round of cancellations may not be the last. For travelers with upcoming international plans, the coming weeks will be worth watching closely.
