Crude oil prices pulled back modestly on Friday after a punishing week, but the reprieve felt fragile at best. Brent crude futures settled around $109 a barrel after briefly surging to nearly $120 a barrel the day before. West Texas Intermediate futures were trading near $96 a barrel. For a market that has watched prices climb roughly 65 percent over the past month, a single day of relative calm is not the same as a turning point.
The slight easing came after the Treasury Department signaled that Washington is weighing a significant step to cool energy prices: the release of approximately 140 million barrels of Iranian oil currently held on tankers at sea. The crude has been sitting idle under existing sanctions. Officials suggested that temporarily lifting those restrictions could provide a short-term buffer on prices, buying roughly two weeks of breathing room for global markets still reeling from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel says progress is being made
Adding to the cautious optimism on Friday, Israeli leadership indicated that the two countries are working together to restore navigation through the strait, one of the most consequential chokepoints in global energy infrastructure. Officials also suggested that Iran’s uranium enrichment capability and ballistic missile production have been significantly degraded, and that a potential end to active fighting could arrive sooner than originally anticipated.
Whether those signals translate into actual market relief remains to be seen. Energy traders have learned over the past several weeks that developments in this conflict move quickly and not always in the expected direction.
What analysts are watching and fearing
Major financial institutions have sharply revised their near-term oil forecasts upward. Base case projections from at least one major bank now put both Brent and WTI at $120 a barrel within a one to three month window. A worst-case scenario, in which the conflict deepens or spreads further, could send prices toward $150 a barrel. If tensions cool within the next month or two, the same analysts see Brent retreating back toward the $70 to $80 range before year end.
The most alarming projection on the table comes from Gulf energy officials, who have suggested that if fighting and supply disruptions persist into late April, prices could push above $180 a barrel, a level that would send shock waves through the global economy.
The damage already done
The current price environment is not theoretical. Earlier this week, Iran launched strikes on energy infrastructure across the Gulf region. The hardest hit target was a major Qatari industrial zone that houses the world’s largest liquefied natural gas export capacity. Refineries in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait also sustained damage. Those strikes followed an Israeli attack on a major Iranian gas field, further deepening the cycle of retaliation.
Repair timelines at several of the affected facilities are measured in months, not weeks. Energy analysts note that the two variables most likely to determine where prices go from here are whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens and how quickly the damaged production and refining capacity can be restored. One energy research firm estimates that if Iran were to strike every facility it has targeted, the potential loss in refining output could reach at least 700,000 barrels per day.
Washington moves to cushion the blow at home
The White House has taken several steps to protect American consumers from the worst of the price surge. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been tapped to inject additional supply into domestic markets. President Trump also issued a temporary waiver of maritime shipping restrictions, a move intended to make it easier to move domestic crude across the country and reduce pressure on prices at the pump.
Whether those measures prove sufficient depends almost entirely on how long the conflict continues and whether the world’s most critical oil shipping lane reopens anytime soon.
